The morning note from Westpac New Zealand (Imre Speizer)
- The RBA policy decision is expected to be firmly on hold.
- The minutes of the March Board meeting were less upbeat than previous assessments. Upside risks from global growth and commodity prices were downplayed, with the Bank again sounding cautious about labour market conditions and household incomes.
- However, concerns about "a build- up of risks associated with the housing market" effectively rule out further cuts.
Speizer getting straight to the important issues to watch for in the Statement (I've bolded them for emphasis)
And, on the trade balance data (due 0130GMT, here is the consensus expectation)
- Feb trade balance is expected to be a $2.8bn surplus after it narrowed to $1.3bn in Jan from $3.5bn in Dec, in part due to a spike in imports. Export earnings are expected to increase $1.0bn on a rise in iron ore prices and a rebound in gold while imports fall $550mn.
For the AUD today ...
- AUD/USD 1 day: Range support around 0.7600 is vulnerable. The RBA's tone will be a key driver today
