How’s that for a headline?
Australian dollar … doesn’t do anything
I just had to add the qualifier in brackets.
But, yeah, not a lot going on with the AUD. A day for technical analysts to wonder what all the fuss is about … (Or, maybe not. Technical analysts, any thoughts on today’s AUD action welcome – or any other timeframe you wish, of course)).
Anyways … here’s a guide to news so far today. I’ve highlighted in bold text the posts of most relevance (IMHO):
Australia Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook due today – expected impact
RBA minutes: Saw it prudent to hold rates, but not cut off chance of a cut
Australian Treasurer Joe Hockey comments on the Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook
Wall Street Journal: Australia Forecasts Budget Blowout
This is probably the key takeaway (again, IMHO):
I’m going to sound like a broken record, but the risks from this are a further deterioration in business and consumer sentiment, and possible responses from the ratings agencies (this news is unlikely to be greeted with an upgrade, right …?).
The AUD is responding with a slightly higher rate. There are buyers below here through to 0.8900, and pops have so far been sold into up to around 60/65. I’ve got to remain bearish on it, but so is the market, a grind higher to take out some shorts cannot be ruled out, 0.9000 is not inconceivable. FOMC this week is going to be an important risk event too, and that’s getting close.
