Earlier previews of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand policy decision due tomorrow at 0200GMT:
- Earlier preview is here
- RBNZ monetary policy meeting this week - a brief preview
- RBNZ monetary policy meeting this week ... here is (not really a) preview
A snippet now via ASB:
- The April OCR review is typically a one-page statement plus a summary of the Monetary Policy Committee's meeting, and does not publish updated forecasts.
- The key focus of the RBNZ communication will keeping a lid on longer-term interest rate expectations - 10-year interest rates have jumped sharply in NZ and abroad over 2021. This lift has been supported by improved global financial market sentiment as the end of the COVID-19 pandemic seems in sight. And while that may be the case for the US, which could reach herd immunity within the next three months, there is still a long way to go in NZ before we can open the borders and return to normal.
- The RBNZ will be wanting to avoid a premature tightening in monetary conditions in NZ. The unexpected fall in December quarter GDP highlights the fragility of the NZ economic recovery over the year ahead.
And, via Westpac:
- We expect no change in monetary policy settings at the upcoming review with the OCR to be held at 0.25% for the foreseeable future.
- A softer than expected starting point for the New Zealand economy will be balanced against a rapidly improving global outlook.
- The Government's housing policy announcement last month will only have a moderate impact on the RBNZ's house price forecasts, which were already on the conservative side.
- The RBNZ is already braced for a near-term spike in inflation. However, this is expected to be temporary, and the RBNZ will reiterate that a sustained return to its inflation and employment goals is a considerable time away
