The Reserve Bank of New Zealand meet this week, on Thursday local (Wednesday GMT)
- announcement schedule for Wednesday 27 June at 2100GMT
I posted a preview earlier: RBNZ meeting - 'on hold' expected - but here are 3 things to watch in the statement
This now, via the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research on the deliberations of their Monetary Policy Shadow Board
Christina Leung, Principal Economist at NZIER:
"There is a slightly more divergent view amongst the Shadow Board members relative to the previous round, but the recommendation remains firmly centred on no change to the OCR. Higher global interest rates support a tightening bias, but the heightened uncertainty and low inflation environment indicates little urgency for interest rates to be lifted."
NZIER cite:
- uncertainty over the effects of new government policies … continues to weigh on business confidence
- firms are seeing.... demand in their own business … continues to hold up at healthy levels
- Nonetheless, this uncertainty may impact on firms' planning over the longer run, and adds to the case for the Reserve Bank to be cautious as to when it lifts interest rates"
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NZIER's Monetary Policy Shadow Board is independent of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand
- Shadow Board participants... indicate what they believe is the most appropriate Official Cash Rate setting for the economy
- Participants show where they think interest rates should be, not what they believe will happen.
