Out a little earlier from the WSJ and Eamonn’s just given me the heads up
Seems to have made little impact as we’ve seen a ramp up in commodity currencies in the past hour or so with with AUDUSD testing Asian highs of 0.8932 and USDCAD down to 1.1056.
Just sticking it up for info.
The article is gated so here it is
Reserve Bank of Australia’s John Edwards Flags Further Risks to Aussie Dollar
A sharp sell-off in the Australian dollar may not be over, despite it being one of the worst-performing currencies globally in the past year, a key member of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s policy-making team said Wednesday.
After trading above parity with the U.S. dollar for years, the Aussie has dropped 15% from its peak in 2013—partly because the central bank has talked the local currency down in a bid to help exporters struggling to sell their merchandise overseas. The decline was also caused by worries over China’s economy and the U.S. Federal Reserve’s tapering of its bond-buying program.
The depreciation has been pretty marked, and it’s not necessarily over.There is a risk that [the currency] is going to fall further. I don’t think we should dismiss that.
John Edwards, an external board member who helps shape interest-rate policy but doesn’t speak on behalf of the central bank, said in an interview.The remarks come after the central bank kept rates at a historic low of 2.5% Tuesday, but appeared to close off the likelihood of future interest-rate cuts as consumer prices rise more strongly than anticipated.
In Tuesday’s statement, the central bank also removed a long-standing reference to the Australian dollar being “uncomfortably high,” saying only that if current levels are maintained it would help support a rebalancing of the economy.
The Australian dollar surged to its highest levels since mid-January following the rates announcement, trading nearly two cents higher at US$0.8940, as traders interpreted the statement as signaling an end to a cycle of eight rate cuts spanning back to late 2011.
Mr. Edwards is part of the nine-member board of the central bank and his views help form its monthly rate decision.
Deep interest-rate cuts over the past two years have succeeded in bringing about only a patchy recovery in Australia’s resource-rich economy, as the nation grapples with a sharp slowdown in mining investment that has driven unemployment close to financial-crisis highs.
The central bank’s recent attempts to talk down the Aussie dollar have also had a potentially damaging side effect: A lower Australian dollar tends to drive up the price of imports, contributing to higher inflation. If unchecked, rising consumer prices may put pressure on the central bank to raise interest rates before the economy has had time to recover properly.
Mr. Edwards said Wednesday the pace of the Australian dollar’s fall will determine whether it becomes a problem in adding to an emerging inflation risk. Official inflation data for the fourth quarter of 2013 showed import prices surging broadly and more than expected as the year ended.
At this point I don’t think it is at all alarming. It is true that pass through of the exchange rate change into retail prices, which appeared in tradable inflation, was a bit quicker than generally.
Turning to the recent turmoil roiling emerging markets, Mr. Edwards, a former economics adviser to the Labor government under Paul Keating in the early 1990s and chief economist at HSBC in Australia, said he expected the jitters to be short-lived.
I would not expect a big impact on global growth. Nor would I expect it to be very prolonged