The SoMP is issued quarterly
- The Statement sets out the Bank's assessment of current economic conditions, both domestic and international, along with the outlook for Australian inflation and output growth. A number of boxes on topics of special interest are also published.
What that all means is the SoMP contains updated forecasts from the RBA. Obviously the coronavirus and the shutdown response measures to contain it will be the focus fro the Bank in this report.
- it'll contain the RBA's near term outlook for the economy and how they expect the recovery to play out ahead.
- forecast for GDP growth - particularly for the current, June quarter will be a focus
- And then the outlook for the trajectory of the recovery
Governor Lowe has already indicated what to watch for ahead:
- 10% output contraction in H1 of this year
- 6% contraction for 2020
- 6-7% growth in 2021
- unemployment to peak around 10% in June
- inflation to remain below the lower end of the target band
For the AUD impact, there are many moving parts in this report and it may take some time for the implications to filter through to the currency. Knee jerk AUD responses are likely to be due to flows rather than significant changes to the outlook ahead.
