Here are terrific previews, really, really great. We have the best previews .
I'm sorry, I don't know what came over me then.
Here are 5 previews of the Reserve Bank of Australia today
- Announcement and statement due at 0330GMT
This is via LiveSquawk
Brief previews from 5 bank desks
HSBC: In recent public testimony Governor Lowe has made it abundantly clear that the RBA has no appetite to cut further. Governor Lowe has stated that it would not be in the 'public interest' to cut again if it drove household debt to rise further. We expect the RBA's to keep its cash rate on hold at 1.50% through 2017, before lifting it in early 2018
Westpac: The RBA is firmly on hold. Recent commentary has been more upbeat with global prospects improving and the Bank reaffirming its forecasts for 3% growth this year and next - a view that would have been supported by the Q4 GDP rebound. Labour markets and housing are the prime focus. On the former, conditions remain mixed with the weakness in household incomes in the Q4 national accounts likely to be of some concern. Against this, the latest resurgence in dwelling prices is clearly a limiting factor for further policy easing. While there is no chance of a rate move and an explicit 'bias' towards future policy is equally unlikely, there will be great interest in how these issues are handled in the Governor's decision statement.
BAML: We now see a more compelling case for the RBA to begin normalizing policy next year taking into account stronger-than-expected GDP data and improved economic prospects. There has been a notable change in tone from the RBA this year as downside risks have abated. The Bank's confidence that the GDP would rebound from a weak reading in 3Q has been justified. We now see growth moving above trend into 2018 and look for inflation to get back into the target band faster than previously thought. So we have pencilled in the start of a move to normalize policy in February and August 2018 that would unwind the two rates cuts seen over 2016. However, it is too early to expect any guidance from the Bank that a shift in bias is imminent when the board meets next week. Inflation is still below the band and wages growth remains weak. We do not see inflation threatening the inflation target at this stage, but risks are likely to become more balanced to justify winding back stimulus. Policy would still be accommodative. The RBA confirmed our view that the trade-weighted exchange rate is no longer overvalued. Policy normalisation will support AUD/USD in 2018 but not before a decline toward 0.70 later this year driven by a stronger USD and weaker China data.
Barc: RBA comfortable with current level of interest rates, but may turn incrementally more neutral. In terms of monetary policy, we think the modest pickup in GDP growth, low wage growth and improving profitability continue to point to restraint at the RBA, despite the recent run-up in commodity prices. Markets are now pricing in a 32% chance that the RBA will raise rates hike by its February 2018 meeting. We expect the RBA to closely follow the data and believe that its tolerance of lower underlying inflation appears to remain high after it cut interest rates in May and August last year. Overall, we still believe the RBA will hold rates through 2017, but if growth starts to firm up, the guidance from the RBA may turn more neutral in coming months.
TD Securities: The RBA is universally expected to pause again at 1.5%. The global backdrop is favourable, where the Fed could hike as soon as this month, and Chinese hard landing fears are now a distant tail risk. Local activity data has been buoyant, especially the convincing Dec qtr GDP rebound. As an offset, we expect a repeat of concerns about weak hours worked and excess capacity in the labour market.
