The Reserve Bank of Australia policy meeting is the first Tuesday of each month (except in January when there is no meeting)
- Next Tuesday is January 31, so the RBA gets to extend their summer break for another week!
- So ... the first meeting for 2017 is February
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I posted up some responses to the Q4 inflation data earlier, the gist is that there is nothing in today's data to prompt an RBA move either way on February 8. I concur.
But, here's a little more, this time from Westpac (this is from chief economist Bill Evans prior to the inflation data today):
- The most recent Board minutes for the December meeting emphasised the concern the Board has with balancing the risks around financial stability and the possible need to further support a deteriorating economy.
- A reasonable interpretation of this discussion is that the "hurdle" to further cutting rates is high.
- In addition, the minutes put a positive spin on the current economic outlook - consumer spending passing through a soft patch; non mining investment being a bit stronger than the most recent capital expenditure survey indicates; the fall in the unemployment rate being consistent with the hours worked data; and the drag from mining investment likely to ease markedly in 2017.
- These sentiments are certainly consistent with our long held view that rates are likely to remain on hold over the course of 2017.
(Bolding mine)
