Reserve Bank of Australia July Monetary Policy Board meeting minutes
- RBA Bard agreed next rate move likely to be upward if economy improved as expected
- Board saw "no strong case" for a near-term move in interest rates
- Progress on unemployment and inflation likely to be gradual
- Outlook for labour market positive, vacancies pointed to solid jobs growth
- Recent data consistent with GDP growth bit above 3 pct this year and next
- AUD had fallen "a little" but still within range of past two years
- Board noted household income growth had been subdued for past couple of years
- Labour incomes boosted by increase in jobs, but wages growth remained low
- Board had detailed discussion on household debt using rba study paper
- Board agreed household finances warranted "close and careful monitoring"
- Households with high debt more vulnerable to economic shocks
- Rate moves had larger impact on disposable incomes for those with high debt
- RBA noted rising funding costs at local banks, not clear how long this would last
- Funding costs for major banks had "risen a little" over 2018, still low historically
- Some smaller banks had raised mortgage rates but, overall, rates lower in past year
- Downside risks to global growth had increased, trade tensions harmful
Quick summary Headlines via Reuters
I'm not going to say these are hawkish, but I expected them to be a little more dovish given the July statement. Still, there isn't too much in it and the RBA is on hold for the time being and for months to come I reckon.
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