Reserve Bank of Australia December meeting minutes
- board agreed important to reassess economic outlook at February meeting
- board felt it would be concerning if outlook for economy, jobs deteriorated
- had ability to add further stimulus if required, ready to ease again if needed
- economy appeared to have reached a gentle turning point
- board noted policy worked with long and variable lags
- extended period of low rates needed to meet employment, inflation targets
- persistently low growth in household incomes a source of concern
- current wage growth not fast enough to reach inflation, consumption goals
- rate cuts had been working by lowering bond yields, a$ and mortgage payments
- board judged stimulus from rate cuts outweighed any negative impact on confidence
- consumers increasingly gloomy on economy, media coverage also more negative
- consumers more upbeat on own finances, which correlates better with consumption
- recovery in home prices expected to be positive for consumption over time
- house prices continued to strengthen, but building to fall for several more quarters
- liaison with retailers pointed to flat sales growth in October and November
- some downside risks to global economy had receded
Headlines via Reuters, bolding mine.
That Feb meeting reassessment comment reaffirms the RBA is in monitoring mode, as does the long & variable lag one.
The other comments are along familiar themes, but they are nevertheless net quite downbeat. Too many to highlight …
more to come
