I posted an ANZ preview of the Reserve Bank of Australia announcement today earlier:
Its RBA day - preview of the July meeting
Mmmm, actually I've done little else but post RBA previews:
- Westpac preview
- UBS note on what to expect from RBA
- HSBC preview
And, ICYMI:
- Announcement & Statement from Governor Lowe scheduled 0430GMT
- The widespread expectation is for no change in the cash rate
- The Statement is, on balance, expected to be a little more upbeat
OK then, so much for the preamble ... ANZ have another preview, this time with more of a specific FX slant, in (very) brief:
- Following the surprising tilts from the ECB, BoE, and BoC last week, the market is on the hunt for hawkish central bank surprises.
- We do not think that the RBA will satiate them. The economy is still running at levels just above stall speed and the recent improvement in employment will not be enough to prompt a shift in bias.
- We think the RBA is comfortably on hold and will not want to send a signal to the contrary. AUD bulls beware
(bolding is mine)
OK, if you are an AUD bull and you are feeling annoyed at me for conveying this, here is my peace offering. This is via CBA today, they have the exact opposite view:
- AUD/USD corrected lower overnight to near 0.7640 on USD strength.
- The RBA is widely expected to leave the cash rate at 1.50% and reiterate its neutral stance. The risk is the RBA adopts more upbeat views on Australian economic activity considering the solid growth in employment and improving global economic backdrop.
- Current market pricing signals no change in the RBA cash rate in 2017 and only a 35% chance of a 25bps rate rise by June 2018. This means there is room for Australian interest rate expectations to adjust higher in favour of AUD. AUD/EUR and AUD/GBP can move higher today if our view of a more constructive RBA post-meeting statement pans-out.
(bolding is mine)
OK, if you are an AUD bear and you are feeling annoyed at me for conveying this, here is my peace offering. Simply start reading this post at
- ANZ have another preview
and stop at
- AUD bulls beware
(Something for everyone!)
