Better to bet on a horse than an economist.
Today was Melbourne Cup day in Australia. It’s a holiday centered around a horse race and an RBA decision.
The race was won by a 20-to-1 underdog named Green Moon.
That sounds like a longshot but here is an even longer one: Just one of 27 economists surveyed by Bloomberg correctly forecast that the RBA would hike last month and hold today (ANZ if you’re keeping score).
The lesson may be that you should never trust an economist but given that it’s election day, maybe it should be that you should never trust the polls. Or maybe, it should be that you should always trust ForexLive.
AUD/USD currently capped by a barrier at 1.0450 and a cluster of resistance just below.
