NZD/USD fell 40 pips to a session low of 0.8236 after the FOMC decision but a much larger move is likely on the rate decision. Last at 0.8252.
The market has been building toward this decision for weeks and you can see it in the tightening range since late November.
The simple parameters are 0.8200 and 0.8300. A break of either will likely spark another 60-70 pip follow through but given the importance of the decision, that could all happen in seconds.
NZDUSD daily
I think the market is skewed to the upside. If we drop down below 0.8200 the buyers will wade in on the near-certainty of a March high so there’s a case for buying a dip. If they hike and the pair runs, the technical barriers are going to give out fairly quickly.
