The Reserve Bank of New Zealand monetary policy announcement is due at 2100GMT
- Will be accompanied by the bank's Monetary Policy Statement
- Governor Wheeler will give a press conference an hour later, 2200GMT
I posted a preview yesterday:
- RBNZ monetary policy announcement due Wednesday - preview, scenarios
And others:
- NZDUSD waffles back and forth ahead of the RBNZ statement
- RBNZ negative bias - ANZ Bank
- RBNZ this week could see it "ramp up its currency warning"
- Nomura on RBNZ and Kiwi
Preview RBNZ rate decision & statement - RBNZ meet this week - the 'shadow board' recommends leaving OCR on hold
Adding now, more previews from some of the banks:
ASB:
- We expect the RBNZ to sound a more cautionary tone in the August Monetary Policy Statement. The balance of events since the June OCR decision points to less inflation pressure. The NZ dollar is higher; the Q2 CPI was weaker than the RBNZ expected; the RBNZ's estimate of the neutral interest rate has edged down further. In addition, Q1 GDP was weaker than expected, now for a second quarter in a row. As a result, the RBNZ's OCR forecast track is likely to show rate increases will occur in early 2020, 3-6 months later than in its May MPS forecasts. We also don't completely rule out the RBNZ lowering its 2017/18 OCR forecasts slightly if it wanted to signal that there is a higher risk that it cuts the OCR over the next year. Reflecting the shift in risks, we have also nudged out our own view of when the RBNZ will first lift the OCR, to February 2019 (previously November 2018).
ANZ:
- We expect the RBNZ to maintain the OCR at 1.75% on Thursday and stick to a neutral bias. A case could be made for moving to an easing bias. However, medium-term inflation signals are still positive. So an easing bias is a leap too far and we think the RBNZ will rely on the flexibility it has within its framework to ebb and flow with recent developments. Overall, it looks like it will be business as usual, with another ultraneutral 'steady as she goes' outlook. The market's focus will be on the tone. While we don't see an outright easing stance, we expect something on the dovish side of neutral - and more dovish than in May. On the RBNZ's broader projections, we suspect there will be an element of 'looking through the noise'.
BNZ:
- MPS will be principally about CPI inflation forecasts. Given all that has occurred since the May MPS, we see broad downward pressure coming on the Reserve Bank's inflation forecasts - partly as the new, lower, standing point is included but also as the much strongerthan-expected NZD feeds into the forecasts. Even so, we suspect the Bank will do its best to try to maintain a neutral stance on the OCR. We don't think the RBNZ will signal a cut. We maintain our view that, whether or not inflation responds, our economy is currently sufficiently capacity constrained and growing well enough that it needs no extra stimulus from the central bank. But, the market would be well advised to take notice of the way the balance of information has shifted since the RBNZ's previous full set of forecasts.
Westpac:
- We expect the RBNZ will leave the OCR at 1.75% and reiterate that monetary policy is on hold for the foreseeable future. The press release will probably emphasise the softer tone to recent data, and the RBNZ's discomfort with the high exchange rate. The RBNZ may expunge any hint of hikes from its OCR forecast, and issue slightly more dovish guidance in the press release. An MPS along these lines would surprise financial markets, possibly causing swap rates and the exchange rate to fall on the day
