Forex will be focused on the Federal Open Market Committee meting this week, but there is the Reserve Bank of New Zealand also
- Reserve Bank of New Zealand monetary policy announcement due on 27 September at 2100 GMT
- (ps, FOMC is day before: FOMC the big central bank event this week, a quick preview of the Fed meeting)
Earlier previews of the RBNZ:
- NZD traders - the RBNZ meet next week, no change expected
- NZD traders - An early preview of the RBNZ meeting next week (and where to for the NZD)
This one now, in brief, via Westpac NZ economists:
- We expect the RBNZ will leave the OCR unchanged at next week's OCR Review. - However, there is still a one in three chance that the RBNZ cuts the OCR over the coming year.
- We expect the tone of the OCR Review to be either neutral or dovish from a market point of view.
- A neutral Review would simply restate that the next move could be "up or down." - The other possibility is that the RBNZ adopts a "soft" easing bias, explicitly warning that if the economy fails to accelerate as expected, the OCR could fall.
- This would match RBNZ comments made in the media, and would be in the spirit of open and frank communication that the RBNZ has embraced.
- It seems very unlikely that the RBNZ will issue a hawkish statement that causes interest rates and the exchange rate to rise. The balance of risks for next week's OCR Review is in the direction of lower interest rates and a lower exchange rate.
