New Zealand Institute of Economic Research (NZIER) economists have issued their latest Quarterly Predictions (June 2019)
The report is available to their subscribers in full, but the highlights in brief:
- Growth expected to slow over the coming year
- Growth to recover from 2020
- annual GDP growth to average around 2.6 percent over the next five years (below the average of 3.4 percent over the previous five years)
- Capacity pressures have limited the extent to which activity in some sectors have picked up
- Business confidence eased in the first quarter of the year, and businesses report reduced own trading activity. Weak profitability remains a negative development, with the potential for this to affect firms' expansion plans.
- escalating trade war between the US and China presents downside risks to the global growth outlook
On the their outlook for monetary policy:
- expect the Reserve Bank will follow up with another OCR cut in September this year
