Just reading through some of the overnight bank notes on ozzAustralia and the inflation data that was out yesterday.
Data is here:
And I posted some of the quick takes:
- Australian Q1 inflation data- more analyst responses coming in
- Australian Q1 inflation data- analyst responses coming in
This now via Commerzbank, pretty emphatic on the no rate hikes, and correct too IMO
- inflation data is unlikely to constitute an argument for the Reserve Bank of Australia to consider a rate hike any time soon whatsoever.
- Inflation in Q1 2018 remains stuck at the lower end of the target range again in Q1 2018. The different measures of core inflation do not look any better either and range between 1.9% and 2.0%, so that they only touch the inflation target of 2-3% if at all.
- Moreover a possible trade conflict between China and the US constitutes a considerable risk factor for Australia in particular.
- Above all as over the past few years growth was less driven by private consumption but mainly by foreign trade - in particular with China. As a result the AUD is suffering due to the uncertainty surrounding this risk. Against this background the RBA will continue to try and prevent strong AUD appreciation as it might cause renewed downside pressure on inflation and dampen the pickup in the economy
