I had the headline posted much earlier today: Australia - NAB changes RBA interest rate call - now expects one rate hike in late 2018
Just a bit of detail now:
- National Australia Bank Economics
- Expect one 25bp hike, November most likely - will kick off a cycle of hikes
- Prior call from the economists at NAB was for 2 by the end of 2018
- Change in call citing
- weak wage growth still
- slow progress reducing unemployment
NAB eco looking for
- growth near 3% by year end
- unemployment approaching 5%
- other tightness in the labour market
and this should ignite growth in private sector wages
Also:
- Inflation approaching the bottom of the 2%-3% target range
Caveats ... still depends on flow of data
- possible RBA stays on hold for all of 2018
- hikes in early 2019 instead
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ps. AUD/USD has regained a few points after its overnight fall ever since the news of the change in call came out.
Just saying' (if you know what I mean? ;-))
