I posted earlier the headline: JPM amend their call for the next RBA rate cut, in H1 2018 (from H2 2017)
More detail:
- Expect 50bp of cuts in first half of 2018
- To a low of 1% by Q2 of that year (a low for the cycle)
- Fundamentals justifying easing have not changed
- Financial conditions are not loose enough to support growth in domestic demand, and hence not generating inflation
- Further modest disappointments in data flow will build , will force the RBA to cut again
- Watch the August and November SoMPs for the RBA to acknowledge weaker growth outcome on its inflation forecasts
- JPM sees risk the RBA waits even longer to ease due to risks on housing prices
via Bloomberg
