More on Australian inflation: "data overstate the true rate of inflation"

Greg posted on the Australian inflation data yesterday:

And, from earlier today I had this:

Via Capital economics, another response to the data (in brief) and what they see as implications for the Reserve Bank of Australia:

  • The drop back in the headline inflation rate ... is quite remarkable given the surge in utility prices
  • It just underlines the weakness of price pressures in other areas, which supports our view that the RBA won't raise interest rates at all next year
  • the RBA will view the rise in utilities prices as a hit to households' spending power rather than a sign that inflation pressures are building
  • subdued demand and intense competition is keeping a lid on inflation across the economy. That won't change soon.
  • These data support our view that the economy won't be strong enough to raise underlying inflation to the middle of the RBA's 2-3% target. What's more, these data overstate the true rate of inflation a bit. From the fourth quarter, when the ABS updates the spending weights in the CPI basket, inflation will be a bit lower than otherwise.

(bolding is mine)

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