I posted earlier that NAB says an August RBA cut more likely than in May
A bit more detail now:
- Likely to be a close decision
- Now expect RBA will hold the cash rate steady at 2.25% on May 5
- The better flow of recent data is the main reason for this change
- Our forecast remains for a rising unemployment rate (albeit to a lower peak) which makes it likely they will still need to cut again
- We have pushed our forecasted final rate cut to 2% to August
- Exact timing will be determined by the flow of data
- Have revised up our $A forecast ... now forecast AUD/USD 0.78 at the end of Q215 and 0.76 to Q315
- Previously these were 0.75 and 0.74
- Year-end forecast of 0.74 is unchanged
