Earlier post is here: RBNZ monetary policy meeting today - market pricing at odds with analysts on rate cut probability
In a nutshell, market pricing is around 36% in favour of a cut
- Meanwhile 14 of 20 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg say a cut (6 say on hold)
Timings:
- decision and monetary policy statement are due at 0200GMT
- Governor Orr gives his news conference following at 0300GMT
Previews:
- Here is how today's RBNZ meeting is different to all others (yes, it really is different this time)
- RBNZ monetary policy meeting today - market pricing at odds with analysts on rate cut probability
- Preview of the RBNZ meeting Wednesday 8 May
- RBNZ on Wednesday - what to expect
- NZD traders - RBNZ preview (Reserve Bank of New Zealand monetary policy meeting
- One for the NZD traders - RBNZ preview
- NZD traders - RBNZ meet this week - Shadow Board recommends on hold
Which way will they go, cut or not? Comments welcome.
I am more confused over this one than I was with the RBA yesterday. Lowe has a track record of being (so far in his tenure) unmovable, which tipped the expected decision to a no cut from me yesterday.
Governor Orr I don't know about. He has overseen the change to a committee decision making process, which begins today. This was begun by the new government (well, not new any more). The government has also recently announced it is not going ahead with new capital gains tax measures. This should help to give business confidence a boost, its at very, very low levels.
Further on the economy, last week's jobs data was not good, while inflation is not too much of a concern. Core inflation is at 1.7%, well inside the 1 to 3% RBNZ target band.
I think there is politics at play in today's RBNZ decision, which is making a clearer picture more difficult for me than yesterday's RBA decision was. I thought yesterday's was a 50/50 but was happy to come down on the side of a no cut, thanks to Lowe. For today I am not happy at all to forecast a cut or not … but, gun to head, and I am going for a cut from the RBNZ for political reasons.
What are your thoughts? Cut or not?
