Goldman Sachs
- says RBNZ rates on hold for all of 2015
- Previously has forecast rate hikes in NZ from Q2 of 2015
Cite;
- Benign 3Q14 CPI in N.Z
- Slowing domestic economic momentum
- Weak commodity prices
- More fragile global backdrop
- Still elevated NZD
Say N.Z. inflation is forecast to average 1.3% in both 2014 and 2015 (previously saw 1.5% and 1.9%) and 2.0% in 2016 (previously 2.2%)
Expects an additional 50bps of increases from 1Q16 taking the OCR to 4.0% by mid-2016; chance of next RBNZ move being a cut is “conceivable” but “still relatively low”
On Australia:
- Australian headline inflation forecast cut to 2.1% and 2.6% for 2015 and 2016, respectively (from 2.3% and 2.7%)
- Australia underlying level of inflation for 2015 seen at 2.5% (had seen 2.8%) and 2016 at 2.9% (previously 3.1%)
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PS. The RBNZ announce the result from theier monetary policy meeting on Thursday morning (NZ time), October 30.
No change is expected
