Goldman Sachs on Australia and the RBA

I posted on GS comments on the Japanese GDP here:

• Goldman Sachs on Japan GDP

And on the US economy here

Goldman Sachs on the factors posing risks to US growth (recession probability is low)

Now some snippets on the land down under …

Backdrop of:

• global growth jitters
• weakening business surveys
• falling house prices

outlook for the Australian economy and interest rates has become … less certain

Most likely scenario

• economy navigates a key risk period over 1H2019
• interest rates edge higher over the medium term
• somewhat later than we previously forecast …. +25bp in Q3 of 2020; whereas GS were previously Q4 2019

first half of 2019 is the key risk period for the Australian economy