BNZ citing ANZ business survey for May released yesterday
(link here ICYMI: NZ data - May business confidence improves to -32.0 from -37.5 previously)
- May's ANZ Survey of Business Opinion will have nudged the RBNZ a smidgen closer to lowering its cash rate further
- The Bank has displayed a clear focus on the possibility that falling growth will alleviate capacity constraints in the economy and, in turn, ease pressure on the labour market and future inflation.
- survey will have built on those concerns with no evidence provided that growth is about to accelerate.
- Based on past evidence, current readings would tend to indicate annual average GDP growth of around 1.5%. This is well less than our own expectation that growth troughs at 2.3% - a level similar to that of the RBNZ's forecast. More importantly, though, if growth is to bounce in the second half of this year in the manner that the RBNZ has assumed then business optimism will need to bounce and bounce soon.
From a note issued by BNZ after the survey results yesterday.
