For those who are interested in McCrann's opinion, he wrote overnight in the local press here in Australia.
Background to this is his certainty, expressed in mid-April_ there will be no rate cut from the Reserve Bank of Australia:
In his piece overnight (link above but do note it is gated)
McCrann wrote a correction his note of April 24
- in which he argued the market had misinterpreted the RBA April minutes, McCrann concluded there was little probability of a May rate cu
McCrann is now backing out of this certainty call, saying there is no need for a cut. Its a subtle difference but if you are accustomed to reading pundit views the 'no need' argument allows the pundit to have an out. If the RBA holds it'll be 'I told ya so'. If rhe RBA cut it'll be gnashing of teeth and a stern lecture from the pundit.
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There is plenty of uncertainty around the May meeting. It is very much 'live'. OIS has the probability of a cut at just over 40%.
