Just a few comments noted from ANZ on the Reserve Bank of New Zealand cash rate (bolded)
The global outlook remains positive
- but downside risks have increased
Domestically, the economy is going through a softer patch and we expect it will struggle to grow above trend from here
- That said, cost pressures are increasing and we expect that margin pressure will provide the catalyst needed for firms to pass through price increases, though likely in a gradual fashion
Based on the balance of risks and all else equal, we expect inflation will increase gradually and that the OCR will eventually rise
- That said, downside risks have increased that could delay monetary policy tightening. And if conditions deteriorated significantly, we expect a cut could eventuate quite rapidly
(bolding mine … ANZ saying the RBNZ will act quickly to stem the impact of worsening conditions, should they arrive. Pro tip - watch trade war developments …. )
