ANZ now expect the RBA to hike rates twice in 2018 (25bps in May, then again in H2)

ANZ thoughts on the next move from the Reserve Bank of Australia

I flagged this last week:

• ANZ says RBA Bias Index is pointing to 50bp of rate hikes in the first half of 2018

At that time ANZ were wavering - their new model was tipping the hikes but ANZ had not yet committed. They have now though. (For more on the ANZ 'RBA Bias' model, here: This index provides a clear signal about the likely change in the cash rate over the coming 6-12 months)

ANZ citing downside risks easing and growth prospects improving:

ANZ assesses that if the Reserve Bank of Australia does nothing the real rate of interst will become even further negative:

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Last week I posted on a similar call from National Australia Bank:

• NAB revise RBA view: Forecast hikes in Aug and Nov 2018, 2 more in 2019

CBA are also in the 2018 rate hike camp. Which leaves only Westpac of the 'bug four' Australian banks seeing the Reserve Bank of Australia on hold through 2018.