I found a few calling for the Reserve Bank of Australia to cut today:
- Another forecaster expecting an RBA rate cut today, Tuesday 3 September 2019
- OK, I found two banks forecasting an RBA rate cut today
But … the overwheleming majority have the Bank on hold. Other previews:
- RBA seen cutting rates again ... "but not quite yet". And AUD forecast.
- What are markets pricing in ahead of the RBA?
- AUD - RBA meet Tuesday 3 September 2019 on monetary policy - preview
One of the consensus calls is from TD:
- RBA forecasts assume 2 further cuts, which we expect in November 2019 and May 2020.
- The risk to our forecast is for the Bank to pull the trigger earlier, not later.
- The Bank is likely to reiterate it remains open to cutting further 'if needed'.
- 'Additional evidence' such as poor Q2 GDP after this last week's poor Q2 construction and building approvals data could trigger an October cut.
- weaker inventories print implies downside risk to TD's 0.6% q/q and the mkt 0.5% Q2 GDP forecast. In contrast, property prices are resuming their march higher. We will look for any changes in language around these contrasting risks.
Westpac:
- We expect ... the next rate cut to occur in October.
- A key signal around the Governor's Statement ... will be whether he continues with the wording "ease monetary policy further if needed".
- We are aware that the Governor is concerned about global developments and probably would like to retain some flexibility to respond to an unexpected global shock - better to cut rates in October and allow flexibility to move again in December rather than delay until November and have to do consecutive November/ December moves.
- There also seems little reason to delay beyond October - we know that the RBA's August inflation, wages, and unemployment forecasts were revised down despite assuming two more rate cuts - one in 2019 and one in early 2020.
