From Deutche Bank on the Australian economy:
- ‘underlying’ conditions in the economy are more robust than the increase in the unemployment rate in July would suggest (and more here)
- The business conditions and forward orders components of the NAB monthly business survey posted solid gains in July
- Consumer sentiment has now largely recovered from the post-budget slump. That said, sentiment does remain below the levels seen at the end of last year and the start of this year.
On the currency they say (bolding mine):
- In last week’s Dollar Bloc Weekly we looked at labour markets in Australia and the United States after the rise in Australia’s unemployment rate.
- We argued that relative unemployment rates exaggerated the strength of the US labour market and that relative employment-population ratios was a better fit with AUD/USD.
- Here we apply the same approach to AUD/NZD. This analysis suggests that AUD/NZD is fairly priced at current levels and that employment population ratios are a key indicator to watch.
And, finally:
- The RBA Board minutes and the Governor’s parliamentary appearance are the highlights in Australia this week
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Note –
- The RBA Minutes of the of August 2014 Monetary Policy Meeting are due 19 August 2014 at 0130GMT
- RBA Governor Stevens appears before the House of Representatives’ Standing Committee on Economics on 19 August at 2330GMT
