Whats the aussie gonna do after the RBA announcement?
- Adam had technicals here: AUD/USD technicals ahead of the RBA decision
- And I’ve posted up what to watch for here: Reserve Bank of Australia – first monetary policy board meeting of 2014 – announcement due at 2.30pm local time
- and what the analysts are saying: RBA meeting today – what are the the bank analysts expecting? – UPDATED
The Aussie has been hanging in there very well as emerging markets get sold off, the kiwi takes a pounding, and the flight to the yen continues. The aussie has avoided much of the contagion so far, wouldn’t you agree? Still, its not far from 3-year lows (historians, correct if I’m wrong on that number).
But … what about after the announcement?
From the RBA I am expecting:
- a removal of the “uncomfortably high” currency line, perhaps to be replaced with something else, but something not as bearish for the currency
- some concern to be expressed over inflation
- A further watering down of their of their easing bias
I have my magic lantern and have given these three wishes to the genie within … if we get them or some combination I expect the selling pressure on the AUD to further abate.
If we don’t get these, or not many of them, then more downside beckons … though not too much I wouldn’t think. 0.8650 and 0.8600 holds buyers for the time being.
Any thoughts on likely direction or prices we will see, are welcome – as always!
