The big item on the AUD agenda today is the RBA announcement and accompanying statement at 2.30pm local time (0330GMT).
I pointed out an item in yesterday’s Financial Review saying the easing cycle was over. It is too early, though, I think, to expect much change in rhetoric from the RBA. While there is basically no likelihood of an interest rate cut today, the accompanying statement will most likely maintain an easing bias in its words. Recent data in Australia has, on balance, been on the improve, as has data from China. The RBA, though, will want to see more evidence of Australian economic strength and confidence – eg. an expansion in credit growth – before shifting the rhetoric in their statements.
AUD/USD bids below 1.0390 and offers around 1.0445 are the initial levels to watch ahead of the release today.
