The two-month OIS swap is bid at 4.16% at the moment, implying a 66% chance of a hold at the March 7 meeting. By year-end, one full cut is priced in with a nearly 50% chance of a second cut.
The bias will be to price out those cuts (boosting AUD) unless growth tumbles in China/US/Europe.
Three of 27 economists surveyed by Bloomberg forecast a hold. One of them, Kieran Davis of RBS, expects no change for the rest of the year. His overall record is spotty, however, he called for two hikes last year that never came and said the RBA would hold at the previous cut.
