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Newsquawk Week Ahead: Week Ahead: Trade deadlines, FOMC Minutes, RBA, RBNZ, Canada jobs
- Next week highlights include US President Trump's trade negotiation deadlines, minutes from the FOMC, rate decisions from RBA, RBNZ and BoK, while UK GDP and the Canadian Jobs Report will also be in focus.
Australian Household Spending May 2025 +4.2% y/y (expected +3.5%), +0.9% m/m (exp +0.5%)
- Australian Bureau of Statistics data
Reuters poll: 31 of 37 economists expect cut to RBA cash rate by 25bp next week
- The Reserve Bank of Australia meeting is on July 7 and 8
Australian May trade balance +2238mn (expected +5091mn, prior +5413mn)
- Trade data from Australia May 2025 shows a huge miss with a plunge in exports m/m
Australia S&P Global June final services PMI 51.8 (prior 50.6)
- Earlier this week the data showed the Australian manufacturing PMI for June slowed a little from May but remained in expansion
AUDUSD volatility persists as sellers lean against trendline resistance. More work to do.
- Next support at 0.65357 in focus; break below could target 100- and 200-bar MAs at 0.65106 and 0.64853, deepening bearish momentum
Australian data - Retail Sales May 2025: +0.2% m/m (expected +0.4%)
- April retail sales were disappointing at -0.1% vs.+0.3% expected, May bounces back a little but disappointing again
Australian May 2025 building permits +3.2% m/m (expected +4.8%)
- Building approvals are a lumpy data set
Australian final June 2025 manufacturing PMI 50.6 (prior 51.0)
- Down from the flash reading
AUDUSD finds support at 100-bar MA on 4-hour chart, eyes break of last week’s high
- The high last week at 0.6562 is eyed.
Australia Private Sector Credit May 2025 % m/m (expected +0.7%, prior +0.7%)
- Data from the Reserve Bank of Australia
Australian private inflation survey, TD-MI Inflation Gauge +0.1% m/m (prior -0.4%)
- Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic & Social Research at the University of Melbourne Inflation Gauge
Trump's chaotic trade policies to crush Australian commodity export earnings
- Australia export revenues are projected to fall
AUDUSD trades to new highs for the year and going back to November 2024
- The price of the AUDUSD is also breaking above the 61.8% retracement
Deutsche Bank brings forward RBA rate cut to July
- Follows the lower inflation rate data from Australia published on Wednesday
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