Remains in the meat of the trading range.
Since December 5th, the EURJPY has traded move sideways with most of the trading between 123.39 and 121.88 (see red box in the hourly chart below).
Yes there have been moves below. The last look below the low extreme occurred on Dec 16 and Dec 20th. Those looks were short and lacked any downward momentum. The price momentum reversed higher.
On the topside, the ceiling was broken from Dec 14-16 on three separate occasions. The last two moves above that ceiling (Dec 15/16) were short in duration. The high today and from Thursday last week, stalled ahead of that ceiling (the highs were at 123.19 and 123.23 respectively). The selling today against last Thursday's high started the fall in trading.
The fall today, has seen the price move below the 100 and 200 hour MAs which are now converged at the 122.70 level. That was more bearish and the selling intensified. When the price waffles back and forth, traders look for a break and run at some point. Looking at the hourly chart, the MAs held support at the end of day yesterday, and that helped the move the price higher from a technical perspective. As we know, that attempt to go higher failed and the MA were broken again - turning the bias back to the downside.
With the price now below the MAs, it has traders thinking lower once again. The ebbs and flows continue, but will support hold or will it break?
Sellers are in control, but traders know that they have to get below the 121.88-122.048 area and that hurdle may/should provide support with stops on a break. Even the shorts from above will tend to lean (with stops on a break - i.e. they take profit). At some point the box will be broken and the market price will run. Traders will be eyeing that but it can wander up and down too. Be aware. Be prepared.
