WTI Crude Oil recently pulled back after the big selloff following the break below the key $83 support. The trend remains strongly bearish with the technicals pointing to further downside and the economic data in the major economies continuing to weaken. In fact, if we look at the US, which is generally leading global growth, the ISM Manufacturing PMI plunged further in contraction and the NFP report missed across the board with the unemployment rate ticking higher. These might be just early signals of even more economic weakness ahead with the Fed likely to keep rates stubbornly high into a recession. That’s certainly not a bullish outlook for the Crude Oil market.
WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe
On the daily chart, we can see that Crude Oil bounced on the $75.00 level after the big selloff seen in the past few weeks. The break below the swing low at $77.70 switched the market structure to a downtrend, which is also supported by the moving averages being crossed to the downside. If Crude Oil manages to rise even more, the sellers will look to short at the trendline where they will have the confluence with the red 21 moving average and the 50% Fibonacci retracement level.
WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe
On the 4 hour chart, we can see that the sellers leant on the minor trendline and the 50% Fibonacci retracement level to position for a drop into new lows. The buyers will need the price to break above the trendline to increase the bullish bets into the major trendline, and eventually target a break above the $83 resistance to switch the bias from bearish to bullish.
WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe
On the 1 hour chart, we can see that we had a divergence with the MACD right at the trendline, which is generally a sign of weakening momentum often followed by pullbacks or reversals. In this case, it was another layer of confluence for the sellers to position for further downside. If the price breaks below the $77.70 level and the counter-trendline, the sellers will increase the bearish bets and we will likely see new lows.
Upcoming Events
Today, we have the US Retail Sales and PPI data with the market likely giving more importance to the Retail Sales data. Tomorrow, we will see the latest US Jobless Claims figures where the market will want to see how fast the labour market is softening. Weak data is likely to weigh on Crude Oil as the recessionary fears will keep on growing. On the other hand, strong figures should support the market in the short term.
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