The Turkish lira has been under extreme pressure as investors shun the currency on the back of the central bank showing inflationary pressures. Investors have pummeled the currency. The USDTRY has moved from a low of 12.3720 at the beginning of December to a high today of 18.3491. That is near 50% devaluation in the TRY.
Even worse, the low from 2021 came in on February 16 at 6.89345. That is a gain of 166% for the US dollar from the low to the high Those or huge moves that have huge inflationary implications on the Turkish economy.
Having said that, the price today after peaking at 18.3491, has moved to a low today of 14.4874. The 38.2% retracement of the move up from the 2021 low comes in at 13.97304. That would be a target on further downside momentum. The high price from November 30 and December 10 both stalled near that level. A move back down toward it should find support buyers who may lean against those levels with stops on a move below.
Drilling to the hourly chart below, the price the client has also moved down to test its 200 hour moving average at 14.7487. Although the price has moved below that level, it was only briefly (the markets are volatile). The price has bounced back above that moving average. The 100 hour moving average is higher at 15.64967.
What next,?
Now that the price has bounced after the brief dip below the 200 hour moving average, and moved back between the 100 hour moving average above and 200 hour moving average, traders will likely focus on those moving averages for the next bias clue in the short term. If the price can stay below the 100 hour moving average, and/or move below the 200 hour moving average again, we could see further downside probing with the 38.2% target at 13.97304 as the next target.
Conversely, the dip buyers may also show up against the 200 hour moving average, and if they could push back above the 100 hour moving average, the bias would turn back to the upside.
