The USDJPY is trading to fresh session lows in the US session, extending its decline after breaking through a series of key technical levels earlier in the day. The initial push lower came on the break beneath both the 200-hour moving average and the 200-day moving average, which were converged near the 148.40 area. That zone had been providing support, but once it gave way, sellers were able to seize control. Adding to the bearish bias, the pair also slipped below the 50% midpoint of the trading range since the August 1 high, which comes in at 148.18. Together, these levels now define immediate risk for both buyers and sellers—a move back above would weaken the downside case, while staying below keeps the momentum in favor of the bears.
On the downside, attention is turning toward the next major technical target: a swing area between 147.45 and 147.54. This zone has acted as both resistance and support on multiple occasions going back to September 16, making it a critical battleground for the next directional move. If sellers can push decisively below this region, it would not only mark a significant technical break but also put the market in position for a deeper correction.
Adding weight to this zone is the broken 38.2% retracement of the entire move down from the August 1 high, which aligns near the upper edge of the swing area. This confluence strengthens its importance. A clean move through 147.45 would open the door for a run toward lower targets and further reinforce the downside bias, giving sellers more conviction and control over the trend. Until then, traders will be watching closely to see whether buyers can stage a defense at this critical support, or whether the break below recent averages marks the start of a more sustained bearish leg.
