The USDJPY felt sharply in the early US trading with the price extending below the low price from last Friday at 113.217. It also fell below the 61.8% retracement of the December trading range at 113.210. Lower rates and declining stocks helped to contribute to the fall. The price low reach 113.136 before starting to push back higher, and back above the broken floor area (see lower yellow area).
As stocks began to recover, and traders face the prospects of the failed break, the your started to squeeze back to the upside getting back above the 50% midpoint (which did temporarily hold on the way down) helped the technical picture. The rise took the price all the way up to 113.643.
That US session high was just short of the 200 hour moving average at 113.647.
Sellers looking for a low risk trading level, are taking sticking their toe in the water against the moving average level. It would take a move above it and the 100 hour moving average at 113.732, to tilt the bias more in the favor of the buyers. Absent that and sellers are still in play despite the sharp bounce off the failed break at today's low.
For the week, the low today was the low for the week. On Wednesday, the price moved outside of a ceiling at the 113.954 (FOMC day) and spiked up to 114.27 before slowing down and consolidating.
Yesterday saw sellers return as rates and stocks moved lower.
