The fall in USDJPY appears to have found a support area—at least one that buyers are willing to lean against with stops just below. The key level is the rising 100-bar moving average on the 4-hour chart, which currently sits at 146.389. Just beneath that lies a broader swing area going back to late April, between 145.92 and 146.288. This confluence of support levels gives buyers a well-defined risk area to work with.
As of now, the price is trading near 146.52, suggesting that dip buyers have stepped in to defend the zone. The reaction so far signals that the downside momentum has at least paused—at least for the time being.
Looking higher, the broken 38.2% retracement of the move up from the July 1 low—previously broken—is now acting as resistance at 146.704. Sellers were able to push below that level earlier today, showing intent to take back control. Now, however, the onus is on them to defend that level during any corrective rebound. Holding below 146.704 would reinforce the bearish shift and limit upside momentum in the short term.
Going forward, a move back below the 100 bar moving average and below the 146.288 level would have traders looking toward the 50% midpoint along with the low of the swing area near 145.92.
Selling abates, but sellers made some progress in the wrestling back control. Can they keep the control?
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