The USDJPY is down for the second consecutive day. However, there is some disappointment from the downside move which puts into question the sellers intent and strength.
Looking at the hourly chart, the price of the USDJPY stepped down through an upward sloping trend line and then the rising 100 hour MA (blue line in the chart above). Those breaks should have led to a more bearish bias and momentum. However, the break could not be sustained below the 100 hour MA (the price rebounded within the hour of the break), and the price rotated back higher. The pair is now trading back above the broken trend line as well.
Sellers took a shot. They failed.
What now?
On the topside watch the 138.50 to 138.58 area. The close from Friday was at 138.51. The area has been home to some swing lows and highs over the last few trading days. IF the price is able to get back above, the price re-enters the higher extreme up to 139.384 (double top near that area).
On the downside, sellers would need to prove they can get and stay below the 100 hour MA at 138.013 (and moving higher). Below that, the 38.2% of the move up from the July 8 low is at 137.83. That is near the high from last Wednesday at 137.859 as well. The 137.74 was the swing high from July 11. That too would be a level to get to and through to give the sellers more confidence. .
