The USDJPY continues to push against the 200 hour MA. The last three hourly bars have seen the low at or just below the MA level at 142.610 (and moving higher).
Dip/risk focused buyers are leaning. A break with more momentum would likely turn the buyers to sellers. The 142.07 to 142.30 swing area would be the next target followed by the 38.2% of the move up from the August 26 low at 141.61. THat level was the low yesterday as well. On September 9, the level was briefly broken, but quickly snapped back higher. Getting below the 38.2% is needed to give the sellers more momentum.
So what happens if the buyers win HERE against the 200 hour MA?
THe 100 hour MA would be needed to be broken and stay broken.
Against the upside is the threat of the BOJ intervention. Last night in the Asian session there was verbal intervention confirmed after the pair tested teh 145.00 high from September 7. The double top does put a ceiling on the pair. It would not be the first time that a intervention level is broken IF the price should move above 145.00, but with the USDJPY trading at 1998 highs, and the threat of intervention, it is likely to have traders leaning on the sell side on moves higher.
The question is how low can it go as the BOJ maintains yield curve controls and the US Fed maintains its war against inflation.
