If you’ve been watching my videos on the USDINR over the last few days — including yesterday’s update — you know the focus has been on the pair’s strong bullish run to new record highs and the approach toward the 161.8% Fibonacci extension. That level has been the logical upside target as momentum continued to build.
Today, the market finally sniffed that extension level, but the first test attracted early sellers. That initial hesitation became more meaningful as the session unfolded, and over the last 10 hour or so the price has seen a steady, orderly decline. In fact, this is the most significant corrective move we’ve seen since November 23–24, marking a notable shift in the tone of the intraday price action.
Importantly, the move lower has brought the pair back toward a targeted support zone that I have highlighted in the prior videos. This support is anchored by a key swing area at 89.7900, and it now aligns with the rising 100-hour moving average, currently near 89.7756. The confluence of these two levels strengthens their importance from a technical perspective.
So far, the intraday low has reached 89.873, keeping price just above that dual-level support cluster. The pair is currently trading near 89.8760. For traders looking for a buy-the-dip opportunity, the zone between 89.7756 and 89.7900 is the natural place to lean against, with a stop on a sustained break below the 100-hour moving average.
Conversely, for sellers who entered at higher levels, the picture is different. They need to see the price break and stay below the rising 100-hour MA to finally claim a downside victory — something the bears have been chasing but have not achieved for quite some time. Without that break, the broader bullish structure remains intact.
