The USDCHF remains in a technical tug-of-war as the pair tests a pivotal swing area between 0.7986 and 0.7994. A move below would put the price back into a value area down to 0.79197. with the 100-bar moving average on the 4-hour chart (currently near 0.7975) as the next downside target. A move below both could open the door for a deeper correction, with the value area low and 0.79197 in sight.
On the topside, Friday’s rally stalled into a strong resistance zone near 0.8038–0.8058 (see Red circles). It would take a move above that MA and area to increase the bullish bias. Although the USD rebounded last week for the 2nd week, in a row, the price could not get above the 200-bar moving average on the four hour chart, and it also still remains below the 38.2% of the range since the May high at 0.8102. If the price cannot get above the 38.2% retracement of a trend move, the buyers are not taking back control from the sellers.
Key technical levels to watch:
Support: 0.7986 → 0.7995 (swing area) → 100-hour MA at 0.7970 → 0.7957 (low of value area)→ 0.79197 (swing lows from Thursday and Wednesday)
Resistance: 0.8117 (swing area)→ 0.80388 – 0.80628 (swing area)→ 0.80597 and paren 200 bar moving average on the 4 hour chart)
Stay alert.
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