The USDCHF tested the downside on Wednesday, breaking briefly below a swing area between 0.7938 and 0.7947. That move, however, failed to gain momentum as buyers quickly stepped in, snapping the pair back to the upside. By yesterday, the bullish rebound carried the price to a new high for the week, but the rally stalled right at a dual layer of resistance: the 50% retracement of the move down from the August 1 high and the psychological 0.8000 level. Sellers leaned heavily against that zone, forcing the pair into another rotation back to the downside.
The latest move lower has now pushed the pair below both the 100-hour moving average at 0.7968 and the 200-hour moving average at 0.7963. Adding to the significance, the 38.2% retracement of the same August 1 decline sits at 0.79588, creating a tight cluster of technical levels. This zone – defined by the 100-hour MA, 200-hour MA, and the 38.2% retracement – will be critical in shaping the short-term bias, not only into today’s trade but also heading into next week.
If the price can reclaim the 100-hour moving average at 0.7968 and hold above it, the near-term tone would turn more bullish, and traders would again look toward the 0.8000 level and yesterday’s highs. On the other hand, sustained trading below the 38.2% retracement at 0.79588 would tilt the bias lower, putting focus on the next downside targets at 0.7951, the swing area down to 0.7938, and ultimately the weekly low at 0.79278 as a level that bears would look to break.
