The USDCHF is trading higher and holding near its session highs, and in the process is testing a key technical barrier: the 38.2% retracement of the decline from the November high to last week’s low. That retracement level sits at 0.79715, and a break above it would open the door for a push toward a cluster of resistance.
Above 0.79715, traders will be eyeing the 200-bar MA on the 4-hour chart at 0.79929, followed by the 50% midpoint at 0.8000, and then the 100-bar MA on the 4-hour chart at 0.8009. Together, these levels form a critical ceiling that buyers would need to break to shift the bias more firmly higher.
Taking a broader look at the pair, most of the price action since August 25 has been contained within a 200-pip consolidation range between 0.7871 and 0.8076. There have been brief breaks on both sides — a downside move in September that pushed the price to 0.7827, and a topside extension this month that reached 0.81235 — but these were short-lived. The vast majority of trading has continued to take place inside that core 0.7871–0.8076 band.
Within the range, the cluster of moving averages and the 50% midpoint has acted as a magnet, frequently pulling the price back toward the middle of the distribution. It can be a frustrating environment because the longer-term bias remains non-trending, but traders can still find structure by focusing on the steps within the range and the extremes at either end for actionable trading clues.
