The USDCHF extended higher last week, pushing into the extreme zone from November and breaking above the swing-area ceiling between 0.8066 and 0.8076. That upside momentum carried into today as the pair approached the next target at 0.81027, but once again sellers leaned against the level, stalling the advance and capping the rally.
The subsequent move lower dragged the price back below the 0.8066–0.8076 swing area, but buyers stepped in and pushed it back toward the upper boundary. Still, sellers are defending 0.8076, trying to keep a lid on the pair. If that ceiling continues to hold, a rotation back below 0.8066 could trigger additional downside momentum as the failed break invites disappointment from buyers. The next key downside target sits near 0.80295, where the rising 100-bar MA on the 4-hour chart is positioned.
To the upside, a break above 0.8076 would shift the bias back toward today’s earlier high at 0.81027. Above that, traders would look back toward the November peak at 0.81235.
