The USDCHF — like the other major pairs yesterday — experienced sharp two-way volatility following President Trump’s post pausing strikes on Iran energy facilities. The headline shifted sentiment quickly, sending the dollar lower after it had been bid higher during the Asian and early European sessions.
However, as the pair moved to session lows, buyers leaned against a key swing area between 0.7834 and 0.7840 — a level that had acted as resistance earlier in the month but has since transitioned into support. That area once again proved its importance as a risk-defining floor, helping to stall the decline and spark a rebound back to the upside.
In trading today, the rally initially ran into resistance near the 100-hour moving average at 0.78924, which capped gains during the late Asian session and pushed the price back below the 200-hour moving average at 0.78804. But sellers could not maintain control. After finding support near 0.7860, the price began to rebuild, and in early North American trading has now moved back above both the 100- and 200-hour moving averages.
That shift puts the bias back to the upside — but with conditions.
- For buyers to stay in control, the price needs to remain above the 200-hour MA at 0.78804. That level is now the short-term barometer for bullish versus bearish bias.
- On the topside, the next key target comes in between 0.7900 and 0.7905. A break and sustained move above that area would open the door for a retest of yesterday’s highs and the broader highs from last week.
- If that resistance holds, the pair remains stuck in a broader range — with resistance near 0.7905 and support at 0.7834 — while the moving averages act as the short-term rudder guiding directional bias.
In the video above, I break down these levels from a technical perspective — focusing on the areas traders are watching, reacting to, and using to define risk.
