The Michigan consumer sentiment report came in weaker than expected, weighing on the dollar and pushing USDCHF lower in the past few hours of trading. The decline took the pair back down to retest its 100-hour moving average at 0.7963, which has been acting as a sideways pivot level. The price briefly tested that support, before staging a modest bounce back above it, keeping the moving average as the near-term line in the sand for traders.
That moving average level will be a key barometer not just today, but heading into the new trading week.
Holding above it would keep the focus on the swing area between 0.7986 and 0.7994, which also aligns with the 50% midpoint of the September trading range and the falling 200-hour moving average just above. Recall that in yesterday’s trade, the price briefly broke above the 200-hour moving average (green line on the chart below), but the move proved short-lived, with weaker-than-expected initial jobless claims helping to push the pair back down.
Yesterday’s decline carried the market into a lower swing support zone between 0.7938 and 0.79474, where buyers stepped in to halt the move lower. In today’s session, price action has been oscillating around the 100-hour moving average at 0.7963, before bouncing higher and running into resistance at 0.7986, the lower boundary of the previously mentioned swing area on the topside.
This has left the market with well-defined short-term parameters. On the upside, resistance comes in at 0.7986–0.7994. On the downside, a move below the 100-hour moving average (0.7963) would open the door toward another swing support zone at 0.7938–0.7947, and beyond that, the next key area at 0.7910–0.79209.
