The USDCHF has been grinding steadily lower today after an early test of resistance in the Asian session. The pair briefly pushed up to 0.79948, just above the top of a swing area between 0.7986 and 0.7994, before sellers reasserted control.
Fundamentals also leaned against the dollar after remarks from Swiss National Bank President Martin Schlegel. He reiterated that
Negative interest rates would only return under exceptional circumstances, stressing their harmful effects on savers and pension funds. With the policy rate now at zero following this year’s cuts, Schlegel said officials remain cautious about further easing, even as they monitor U.S. tariffs and sluggish domestic inflation. He defended the pace of earlier reductions as necessary to avoid bigger risks, but conceded it leaves the SNB with limited scope to respond to new shocks. Markets, he noted, still expect rates to remain steady well into 2026.
Technically, the move lower has extended into the U.S. session, with the pair breaking below another swing area between 0.7938 and 0.79471. Holding under this zone keeps sellers firmly in control and exposes the next downside target at 0.7910–0.79209. A further break would shift focus to the 2024 low at 0.78722—a level not seen since 2011.
Moving back above the 0.7947 could disappoint the sellers looking for more downside momentum. The low price from Friday's post- employment reaction reached 0.79555. Moving back above that level would be another disappointment for sellers.
